What was it the 27th law that says radiating heat in to space does not work? I'm skeptical of the whole thing too, but it's not an impossible engineering challenge, just an expensive one.
You don’t even have to limit it to machine learning, the definition of forecasting is isomorphic to the definition of modeling, which, with the dilution of the term AI, is also isomorphic to the definition of AI.
More simply:
- forecasting = modeling = AI
Edit: I’d even throw statistics into that extended equality, meaning that Bayes, Bernoulli and even the fellow named John Gaunt have a strong case for having invented AI.
For statistical time series forecasting, yes. This is for judgment-based forecasting, a somewhat different problem. It often involves, e.g. estimating the probabilities of one-off future events, which time series forecasting models aren’t suited for.
Right. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too.
We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.
Yes, and if the things I learned in my university class on the subject still holds, forecasts are incredibly sensitive to modeling decisions such as what independent variables you choose and how you believe they might mathematically relate to the outcome variable. It’s not a zero skill thing, but if anyone’s found a way to consistently mitigate the luck factor then I’d expect them to be wealthier than Elon Musk by now.
And there’s always a huge amount of variation that you simply can’t model, for whatever reason, and is therefore functionally a random factor.
I don’t want to say too much because this isn’t something I went on to actually do after school so I’m way out of my lane here, but I can see room for this to be more akin to “AI wins parcheesi tournament” than it is to “AI wins chess tournament.”
A few extra steps. Usually, the rug pull doesn't involve directly taking something that belongs to other people, but instead, selling your own thing in a dishonest way.
When you renew your passport, the new one will have a new serial. Not matching a passport serial doesn't mean anything. Not matching a national identity number does.
The controls are atrocious, why does the mouse not work? How do you do mark the bombs? I hope your AI is reading this. It needs affordances of some sort. At least have an obvious way to see what the controls are in game.
If the strait were to suddenly fully open <now> then reserves in (say) Singapore would continue to deplete until an oil ship or three reaches Singapore, which may take a while.
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