The original Turing Test was one of the more interesting standards... An expert judge talks with two subjects in order to determine which is the human: one is a human who knows the point of the test, and one is machine trying to fool the judge into being no better than a coin flip at correctly choosing who was human. Allow for many judges and experience in each etc.
The brilliance of the test, which was strangely lost on Turing, is that the test is doubtful to be passed with any enduring consistency. Intelligence is actually more of a social description. Solving puzzles, playing tricky games, etc is only intelligent if we agree that the actor involved faces normal human constraints or more. We don't actually think machines fulfill that (they obviously do not, that's why we build them: to overcome our own constraints), and so this is why calculating logarithms or playing chess ultimately do not end up counting as actual intelligence when a machine does them.
The thing with alchemy was not that their hypotheses were wrong (they eventually created chemistry), but that their method of secret esoteric mysticism over open inquiry was wrong.
Newton is the great example of this: he led a dual life, where in one he did science openly to a community to scrutinize, in the other he did secret alchemy in search of the philosopher's stone. History has empirically shown us which of his lives actually led to the discovery and accumulation of knowledge, and which did not.
Newton was a smart guy and he devoted a lot of time to his occult research. I bet that a lot of that occult research inspired the physics. The fact that his occult research remains, occult from the public, well that is natural aint it?
You can be inspired by anything, that's fine. Gell-mann was amusing himself and getting inspiration from Buddhism for quantum physics. It's the process of the inquiry that generates the knowledge as a discipline, rather than the personal spark for discovery.
> Alphafold made a breakthrough in protein folding.
Sort of. Alphafold is a prediction tool, or, alternatively framed, a hypothesis generation tool. Then you run an experiment to compare.
It doesn't represent a scientific theory, not in the sense that humans use them. It does not have anywhere near something like the accuracy rate for hypotheses to qualify as akin to the typical scientific testing paradigm. It's an incredibly powerful and efficient tool in certain contexts and used correctly in the discovery phase, but not the understanding or confirmation phase.
It's also got the usual pitfalls with differentiable neural nets. E.g. you flip one amino acid and it doesn't really provide a proper measure of impact.
Ultimately, one major prediction breakthrough is not that crazy. If we compare that to e.g. Random Forest and similar models, the impact in science is infinitely more with them.
We already have a precise and accurate theory for protein folding. What we don’t have is the computational power to do true precise simulations at a scale and speed we’d like.
In many aspects a huge tangled barely documented code base written by inexperienced grad students of quantum shortcuts, err, perturbative methods isn’t that much more or less intelligible than an AI model learning those same methods.
What "precise and accurate theory for protein folding" exists?
Nobody has been able to demonstrate convincingly that any simulation or theory method can reliably predict the folding trajectory of anything but the simplest peptides.
> What "precise and accurate theory for protein folding" exists?
It’s called Quantum Mechanics.
> Nobody has been able to demonstrate convincingly that any simulation or theory method can reliably predict the folding trajectory of anything but the simplest peptides.
No we don’t have simplified models or specialized theories to reduce the computational complexity enough to efficiently solve the QM or even molecular dynamics systems needed to predict protein folding for more than the simplest peptides.
Granted, it’s common to mix up things and say that not having a computationally tractable models means we don’t have precise and accurate theory of PF. Something like [0] resulting in an accurate, precise, and fast theory of protein folding would be incredibly valuable. This however, may not be possible outside specific cases. Though I believe AlphaFold indicates otherwise as it appears life has evolved various building blocks which enable a simpler physics of PF tractable to evolutionary processes.
Quantum computing however could change that [1]. If practical QM is feasible that is, which it’s beginning to look more and more likely. Some say QC is already proven and just needs scaled up.
I don't think anybody is 100% certain that doing a full quantum simulation of a protein (in a box of water) would recapitulate the dynamics of protein folding. It seems like a totally reasonable claim, but one that could not really be evaluated.
If you have a paper that makes a strong argument around this claim, I'd love to see it. BTW- regarding folding funnels, I learned protein folding from Ken Dill as a grad student in biophysics at UCSF, and used to run MD simulations of nucleic acids and proteins. I don't think anybody in the field wants to waste the time worrying about running full quantum simulations of protein folding, it would be prohibitevly expensive even with far better QM simulators than we have now (IE, n squared or better).
Also the article you linked- they are trying to find the optimal structure (called fold by some in the field). That's not protein folding- it's ground state de novo structure prediction. Protein folding is the process by which an unfolded protein adopts the structured state, and most proteins don't actually adopt some single static structure but tend to interconvert between several different substructes that are all kinetically accessible.
> I don't think anybody is 100% certain that doing a full quantum simulation of a protein (in a box of water) would recapitulate the dynamics of protein folding.
True, until it's experimentally shown there's still some possibility QM wouldn't suffice. Though I've not read anything that'd give reason to believe QM couldn't capture the dynamic behavior of folding, unlike the uncertainty around dark matter or quantum supremacy or quantum gravity.
Though it might be practically impossible to setup a simulation using QM which could faithfully capture true protein folding. That seems more likely.
> It seems like a totally reasonable claim, but one that could not really be evaluated.
If quantum supremeacy holds, my hunch would be that it would be feasible to evaluate it one day.
The paper I linked was mostly to showcase that there seem to be approaches utilizing quantum computing to speed up solving QM simulations. We're still in the early days of quantum computing algorithms and it's unclear what's possible yet. Tackling a dynamic system like a unfolded protein folding is certainly a ways away though!
> Also the article you linked- they are trying to find the optimal structure (called fold by some in the field). That's not protein folding- it's ground state de novo structure prediction.
Thanks! I haven't worked on quantum chemistry for many years, and only tangentially on protein folding, so useful to know the terminology. The meta table states and that whole possibility of folding states / pathways / etc fascinates me as potentially being emergent property of protein folding physics and biology as we know it.
This is basically a contemporary reframing of the core purpose of Renaissance magic. I suppose aspiring to be a 21st century John Dee from talking to some powerful chatbot of the future, rather than angels or elemental beings, does sound a bit exciting, but it is ultimately mysticism all the same.
To emphasize again part of the post above: "The aim of our creation is communication and mutual-transformation".
When I write a poem in a birthday card for my wife to give her on her birthday, very little of the "meaning" that will be communicated to (and more importantly with) her is really from some generic semantic interpretation of the tokens. Instead, almost all of the meaning will come from it being an actual personal expression in a shared social context.
If I didn't grasp that second part, I might actually think that asking ChatGPT to write the poem and then copying it in my handwriting to give to her is about the same thing as if the same tokens written but from genuine personal creation. Over prolonged interaction, it could lead to a shared social context in which she generally treats certain things I say as little different than if ChatGPT returned them as output. Thus the shared social context and relationship is then degenerated and fairly inhuman (or "robotic" as the above post calls it).
Someone just the other day told me about how they used to have a group WhatsApp where they’d share these hand made memes. Just a bunch of guys photoshopping dumb stuff. It went on for years.
One day one of them discovers AI and post anything made with AI - initially it’s great, it’s much better quality than what they could photoshop. Everyone jumps on board.
But after a day or so, the joke is over. The love has gone. The whole things falls apart and no-one posts anything anymore.
It turns out - as you say - that the meaning - founded on the insight and EFFORT to create it - was more important than the anccuracy and speed.
Do all of you replying to me also weep for expensive hand woven fabrics? You're all wearing the fruits of automatic looms. It's the same thing.
You own cars, do you weep for the horse industry? Stables, farriers, blacksmiths, leatherworkers/saddlers, ostlers, grooms, etc.
What is an art now becomes a functional ubiquity later. Everything took "insight and effort" because everything was handmade, it's an innate feature. And now those things are mass manufactured and it's what the people want. Humanity will move on to calling whatever current thing we're manually doing an art.
Horses weren’t art. They were a way to get somewhere.
The whole problem with AI is it’s trying to automate the things people LIKE to do and take their life meaning from instead of the things that no one likes doing - like pulling a carriage or a plough.
Oh yeah this is exactly how my group chats went. We still can post some good (in our context) memes and have fun, but not like an avalanche of poorly filtered slop. A joke for a group can still be crafted via an LLM when used judiciously and as intentionally as part of the bit. But by judicious it's important that the human is the one doing the sending and in the right moment, and so the human is still the one communicating.
When WhatsApp originally inserted their AI bot in the chats, it got very annoying very quickly and we agreed to all never invoke it again. It's just a generative spam machine without the curation.
It's not pedantic, it's true, and it actually is deeply important because misunderstanding this can lead to very different beliefs about the world, science, and technology.
This is not kindergarten so let's no go down this path. Asking for a politically neutral (see my explanation elsewhere in this thread if you don't understand what that means) source of information is not 'bad politics' but intended to avoid bad politics. I suspect that you 'identify' as either 'liberal' or 'progressive' so I assume you'd be less than thrilled if Wikipedia had a conservative bias. The same goes for conservatives and (traditional) capital-L Liberals who are less than thrilled to see Wikipedia having a 'left-wing' or 'progressive' bias. It just makes WP end up being lumped together with the legacy media, known to be untrustworthy where it counts and that is a shame for a site which in many ways still is a valuable resource as long as you avoid any and all subjects which have been pulled into the polarised political discourse.
Biologists, mathematicians, physicists, and philosophers are already the experts who produce the text in their domain that the LLMs might have been trained on...
It is fantasy (or more specifically, science fiction). And it's astonishing how uncritically it gets taken at face value through so much of the industry.
The brilliance of the test, which was strangely lost on Turing, is that the test is doubtful to be passed with any enduring consistency. Intelligence is actually more of a social description. Solving puzzles, playing tricky games, etc is only intelligent if we agree that the actor involved faces normal human constraints or more. We don't actually think machines fulfill that (they obviously do not, that's why we build them: to overcome our own constraints), and so this is why calculating logarithms or playing chess ultimately do not end up counting as actual intelligence when a machine does them.