This prediction can't be scored until the 2028 election cycle.
You may think it's very unlikely the prediction will have turned out to be correct by the 2028 election cycle, but that is not the same thing as the prediction being scorable as false today.
For a specific technology to become viable, you often need progress in several individual technologies to occur. Some of these will be exponential and surprise us, but many will see slower progress.
Either way, I suspect progress in robotics will be slower than AI, but I also think we'll see a lot of investment in robotics over the next decade given that AI opens up a lot of new potential applications for robotics.
I suspect any task that doesn't require extreme battery life or extreme dexterity will be doable by robots much sooner than most people think today. I think we could have decent-ish humanoid robots within a decade – robots that can prepare food, clean hotel rooms, empty bins, etc. I think Elon's bet on Optimus is quite likely to be viewed as very ahead of the curve with time.
However, it will take much longer for robots to do everything a human body can, but then most jobs don't require we push the physical limits of human body.
That's why I think 60% is reasonable. And even then I'm not saying it will happen, I just don't think that's a bad bet if given even odds.
That is not true. You can tell you are on the latter part of the S-Curve you are on, if the rate of change of capabilities has decreased compared to before. That is not what we are seeing right now. The rate of change is increasing, or is at best, stable.
It's only in retrospect that you know the level of filtering required to find this S curve trend among the noisy perturbations.
Just like people trying to time the market with "technical analysis". It is extremely easy to find whatever pattern you are looking for. A lot harder to accurately distinguish predictive power from fantasy.
I think the claim is more that if you provide financial support for X without solid record keeping to verify X, expect that you will get more self reported people in that description.
Put differently, relying on self reporting for any sort of status from people is just not a reliable methodology.
Using your API key in third-party harnesses has always been allowed. They just don't like using the subsidized subscription plan outside of first-party harnesses. So this seems to be out of spite
even a squirrel that needs guidance from a human grandmaster, is heavily inspired by existing games, and who can use Piece Mover library is incredible. 5 years ago the squirrel was just a squirrel. then it was able to make legal moves. now it can play a whole game from start to finish, with help. that is incredible
No. You can point e.g. Opencode/Cline/Roo Code/Kilo Code at your inference endpoint. But CC has high install base and users are used to it, so it makes sense to target it.
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