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It is demonstrably true that no insurance company is willing to take on the full risk of insuring a nuclear power plant against disaster.

The reason for this is that insurance companies aren't gamblers - they don't like insuring against minutely-likely but stratospherically-high-cost events, even if they can charge a premium that gives them a positive expected value. That's because they have to factor in that with such a high payout, there is a risk of destroying their business altogether. You can't capitalise on the positive expected value over 1000 years if you went bankrupt in year 3, even if that was just due to "bad luck".

This is just like the understanding that poker players have, that you need a considerably larger bankroll than the stakes you are playing in order to ride out "variance", as it's known.

Insurance companies understand risk.



It's worth noting that it is common practice for potential large claims capable of sinking a single insurer to be distributed over the wider market.

Other than that, you make a good point, and history bares it out. Insurance companies aren't gamblers, they aren't willing to support minutely-likely but stratospherically-high-cost events, even if they can see high profit margines. Bottom line: they really understand risk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_International_Group#Fi...

Note that the $441 billion was just for a small division inside of AIG. The bigger divisions are obviously capable of handling more.




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