I was interested he didn’t point out that having a hit free game != having a hit paid game and the conversion rate form free players to paid is like catastrophically small. additionally free games spread via word of mouth way more virulently because they are free, everyone can try. to spread a paid game you need EACH damn person to pay for it, the word of mouth won't even spread as far.
I think anyone who even thinks a 1% conversion rate of fans is insane based on no data.
Based on data I'd bet its much much less than 1%.
Which is why most paid games have to drop a metric fuck ton of $ on advertising.
Building sized 10 storey starcraft 2 poster ads aren't free nor are super bowl tv slots for WoW ads.
Same for books and media which is how we then end up in the publisher model system. Publishers front a ludicrous amount of money and pump ass loads into advertising to get the word out. That replaces all the free word of mouth and at least the idea of the game reaches a more optimal maximal audience. Still small conversion but yeah.